This graph shows the Ecological Footprint (data from 2012 – data available now will look different in detail, but similar in effect) of the planet and the biocapacity. The existing data was fit using 3 cycles of symmetrical Hubbert curves
| Curve # | 1 | 2 | 3 | Simple |
| Year of Peak | 1974 | 2008 | 2023 | 2026 |
| Year of inflection | 1961 | 1984 | 2016 | 1983 |
| Magnitude of cycle | 3 | 14.6 | 9 | 18 |
The difference between the sum of the area under each of the 3 cycles and the single cycle suggests there will be another cycle that has a fairly long arc and a fairly high magnitude to be able to fill in the missing gap – perhaps it runs as a steady state economy for a while. This may be associated with Peak Fossil Carbon occurring in approximately 2040, and based on the numbers that would be required, it may have some observable effect by now, but we haven’t yet reached the inflection point. Note each cycle of the curve lines up on one of the various energy based cycles – 1972 is the US peak production. 2008 is the world wide peak production, and 2023 is approximately peak gas production.
Alternative, one could superimpose a classic Hubbert curve with a highly asymmetrical Hubbert Curve. If the Hubbert curve is completely asymmetric, it works out to be the same as the Bank Account model. Superimposing a ‘foresight’ curve with a ‘lemmings’ curve will produce a somewhat similar behaviour, but with a slow ‘let down’ curve. The sooner that the precipice is crossed, the greater the magnitude of the remaining production curve will be, even though it may be declining.
While that cliff may be steep, it is far better to cross it as soon as possible, than to try to put it off for as long as possible. There is nothing that predicts ‘how’ we decrease our Ecological Footprint – it could be a matter of vast improvements in efficiency, a significant drop in world population, or something else Ultimately, it matters little what the trigger is, the world must consume vastly less, in the fairly near future.