A broader view of Needs

Adam Smith says that people use their time to meet their wants and needs, and that is the basis of the wealth of a nation.

Max Neef says something similar, but it is said a little more profoundly.

I have said that people either use their time to meet their wants and needs directly, or they use their time to convert resources into the means to meet their wants and needs.

I’m not sure that is the whole picture:

  • There are needs that are addressed by using time; sleep, education, governance. The resources required are nominal. This can be enhanced through Human Development.
  • There are needs that are addressed by using time and resources – the resources come from, and wastes go to, natural capital; homeostasis, food, mobility. This can be enhanced through Technological Development.
  • There are needs that are addressed by resources alone – these are from natural services; breathing air, gravity, sunlight. The time required to meet these needs are nominal in places that support human life. These can be degraded, and enhanced only with great difficulty.
  • And there are needs that are addressed by neither time nor resources; love, respect of our peers, emotional work as a group, hope. These are addressed as a part of our other activities, but cannot neglected without causing harm.

Thus, governance is required to create hope, and labour for others is required to ensure we generate the respect of our peers. This is why institutionalization is able to meet the immediate physical needs of the inmates, but why kids in orphanages die from being un-loved.

It also explains the importance of those natural services. They can have no measurable economic value (since one cannot buy and sell gravity, for example), but that doesn’t mean they have a value of 0.  They must be protected from ‘development’, since degrading them in any way must cause more harm than good.

Engineers can address how efficiently people use their time and resources to meet their needs. We need to found a profession that addresses how effectively people meet their needs.

What is the Economy?

I would argue that our economy is the metabolism of our society.  Thus it is the labour, material, and energy flows into, through, and out of our communities.  Economics would be the study of this.  Money would be a indicator, but not a major part of the understanding of this metabolism – it is the grease in the cogs, not the machine itself.  Too little grease is hard on the machine, but adding more than ‘enough’ does no good at all.

A 200 kg couch potato may have the same metabolism as a 50kg Olympic gymnast, but does either have the output we as a society are wanting to have?  Maybe we want the output from a 100kg lumberjack instead.  The Invisible Hand assumes that all metabolism is good, and eating more is better than eating less.  But if the invisible hand can not distinguish between the outcomes of the alternatives, conventional economics will fail to deliver what we need when we need it.

Can economists say ‘if you want this outcome, this is the best policy’, and be right most of the time?  I don’t know.  I think we’re going to see a peak in the world ecological footprint per capita in the next few years – can economists predict what that would mean?  What do we need to do to maximize the benefits that come from such a change, and minimize the suffering?  Hard to answer any of that.

I’m an engineer, and I haven’t taken much economics in school.  I feel, as I read much of what is written about economics, that there must be something in First Year Economics that is explained to all of the students, and it is taken for granted by everyone else, but I’ve missed.  And in a conversation on Research Gate (link below), I think I found it – it’s the concept of the Rational Agent.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rational_agent

The Rational Agent is assumed to drive our economy, by making decisions that will lead to the best possible outcome, based on the information available at the time, at all times.

Reality isn’t so simple – we respond physically, rationally, emotionally, and spiritually, at all times, in all situations.  We do not act in our long term best interest as a rule (else everyone would live to 100 years of age), and the actions of a mob of individually rational people does not have to be rational.

There is a Zen story about a farmer who gains a horse, loses a horse, gains 2 more horses, his son is injured, etc.  And each time, the neighbours say ‘Oh, that’s good luck’, or ‘Oh, that’s bad luck’ as appropriate.  Each time, the farmer says ‘Oh, is it?’, and each time the bad luck would turn out to be lucky, and vice versa.  A version is found here: http://www.katinkahesselink.net/tibet/zen.html.  The rational decision can only be observed after the fact – there is no way to know ahead of time what the best decision will be.  We can only base our decisions on experience, and Hope.  Hope isn’t rational and our experience is limited.  Which is why we are suckers to marketing, and fashion, and we make irrational decisions during stressful situations. And also why there is Fundamentalism (be it economic, religious, Western, or whatever) to ensure that our experience from yesterday still is valid tomorrow.

Believing that we’re all Rational Actors leads us to believe in an Invisible Hand, because if we’re all doing what we should do, then whatever we have done must defacto be what was ‘intended’ to happen.  It would be the best of all possible outcomes.  Which is plainly balderdash.  That logic assumes that the impact of all actions of all people are effectively the same, that there is a higher morality associated with having wealth and power, things that are blatantly untrue.  “I won, therefore I was the best player, regardless of if I cheated” is a philosophy that discourages others from playing.  In effect, that form of self-reinforcing selfishness breaks down community cohesion, decreasing social resilience.

Maybe we need to think about the ‘whole person’ instead, and their role and responsibilities in a ‘sustainable community”.

Is there need for redefining ‘Economics’ under the present context? – ResearchGate. Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/post/Is_there_need_for_redefining_Economics_under_the_present_context/1 [accessed Feb 19, 2016].

Calculating the value for effectiveness

Figure 1
Figure 1  Canada 2005

The graph above shows the time use and resource use of each decile of household income (although the highest two deciles are combined as the highest pentile). The lowest consuming decile, at around 960 minutes per day per capita, comes from the poorest people in Canada.  It is not realistic to expect that all of their needs are met, and yet they have approximately 1/3 of their time available for meeting needs, and they don’t use it for that for some reason.  I believe that this reason is that there are obstructions within society that prevent individuals, families, or community from being able to meet their needs effectively, and people will generally rather have unmet needs than to work ineffectively against these obstructions.  Examples may be sexism, racism, classism, alcoholism, and so on.

Addressing these obstructions is beyond the capacity and role of engineers. Understanding how these obstruction prevent the Actualized Quality of Life reaching the Potential Quality of Life is entirely within the capacity and role of engineers, so it behooves us to do so.

I believe that people who encounter obstructions will find them stressful. I believe that people who find the obstructions unsurmountable will develop Chronic Stress.  This is something that can be measured, and it has a relatively simple recipe to create.  By deconstructing the recipe, I believe it is possible to identify which needs are not being met effectively, and which ones are, within any individuals within the community.

So, with a time-use study, a resource-use study, and some form of cause-of-stress study, we can find the time used by those that have each specific need met, and the time used by those who do not, to come up with a measure of both the Potential Quality of Life (the time available for activities other than those required to meet your needs) and the Actualized Quality of Life (the time available for activities other than those required to meet your needs, as if all of your needs were met). Ultimately, the intent of Sustainability Engineering is to ensure that the change in Actualized Quality of Life / cost to community is maximized.

The steps required to do this are:

Find the time spent within the community for each need:

For those individuals who have the need met = A

For those individuals who have the need unmet =B

Effectiveness E = ∑A/[∑A+∑B], all values summed across each need, for the whole population.

Potential Quality of Life PQoL = 1440 min/ca/d –[∑A+∑B]

Actualized Quality of Life AQoL = 1440 min/ca/d –[∑A+∑B]/E

= 1440 min/ca/d-(∑A+∑B)2/∑A

= 1440 min/ca/d-(∑A+2∑B+∑B2/∑A)

 

We see from this that a slight change in the time required to meet needs for those individuals who do not have those needs met currently will make the most significant improvement in the overall AQoL. In fact, taking the derivative produces

dAQoL = -{d∑A +2d∑B+2∑Bd∑B/∑A-∑B2/∑A2 d∑A}

= {1+∑B/∑A} {d∑A [1 -∑B/∑A] + 2d∑B}

To have a largest change in the AQoL, dAQoL should be at 0.

This requires that {d∑A [1 -∑B/∑A] + 2d∑B} = 0,

which means that [1 + 2d∑B/ d∑A] = ∑B/∑A

Note, this doesn’t include cost, so this won’t be the final answer, but it should be a good first estimate.

Implementation

All this talk is great – just like all of the other talk on Sustainability that has occurred over the last 30 years. Since the Club of Rome first showed people that bad things were going to happen if we didn’t change to something else, we’ve been talking. Some of the talk focused on how little we could change and still avoid the worst effects (even if just for a small subset of the whole). Some of the talk focused on how much we would have to change. And some has been on just how bad things will be even if we do change. Talk, talk, talk.

So. What do we do about it? What is the Walk? For me, it is living on a farm (that others are farming) and heating with wood that we grow here (generally, cutting standing dead around the perimeter of the fields is plenty). But that doesn’t make any real difference for anyone else. Even when the real value of food rises significantly at the end of the current oil surplus, and I convert my land into a more intensive form of agriculture, I will still be doing nearly nothing to follow the Walk.  This blog itself is just Talk, but it provides a demonstration that Walking is possible in a meaningful way.  To make it real, I will have to include these concepts in my practice of engineering, which ultimately means educating clients.  More Talk…

What have you done, or will you do, to Walk the Talk? What is the Walk for you? Comments are open. I’d love to hear from you.

Prosperity

Prosperity is a concept that is used in economics in strange ways. It seems to be implied to be something more than economic activity, but then the measure of it is then restricted to economic activity. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prosperity “Economic growth is often seen as essential for economic prosperity…”

I think there is a better way to think about it.

Simplicity comes in two basic flavours. Voluntary simplicity allows the individual to decide what to do without. A student may decide to not eat well in exchange for going out for a night on the town. Mandatory simplicity allows the individual no real choice about what to do without – it is poverty. Ultimately, the money in the pocket may be used for booze instead of food, but there is an implication of a lack of real choice.

I think that choice is the distinction. The student can choose to do without food, because she is otherwise well fed. He could choose to spend his dinner money on beer, because there is (or will be) other money available. There is a confidence that the ‘cost’ can be borne without serious impact on the self. Meeting that want won’t prevent a perceived need in the future from being met. And that’s why a student lifestyle is not poverty – in a state of poverty, there is a real risk at all times that meeting a want will prevent a perceived need from being met.  Even if there isn’t a state of depravation, there will be a stress created by wondering if rent will be available, or what food will be on the table, etc.

Prosperity would therefore be the confidence that the time, effort, and cash spent to meet a want would not prevent one from having sufficient time, effort, and cash to meet one’s perceived needs.  And I would suggest that Prosperity is a Need.  We all need the confidence that we’re going to be OK tomorrow to prevent a degradation of the self, family, or community.

Ideas

I was speaking with a colleague recently about what I’d like to do relating to housing, and I’ve repeated much of it here:

 

I’d love to build DHW system that is solar+on-demand. This would involve conventional solar thermal collectors running at between 60C and 70C, an insulated wax tank within the building envelope, and greywater heat recovery. One heat exchanger dumps heat into the wax when the sun is shining, storing heat in the phase change at something above 55C, and another draws heat out on demand at something above 35C. My math says about 3 T of wax is sufficient for an off-grid home filled with teenage girls to get through November.

I’d love to build a solar concentrator to pipe light into conventional buildings to provide hybrid solar. 10 Suns, or even 100 suns would be really interesting to me. The hybrid part would include small LEDs connected to solar panels and lithium batteries that would be entirely self-contained, so when the sun is shining in the room, the batteries are charging. Each light would be set to have a different background light level as a trigger to come on. As the light intensity dims, individual lights come on automatically, either as ambient light or task lighting. No penetrations in the building envelope, and a continuous gradation of lighting. Maybe they would share batteries in clusters…?

I’d love to find out how to do cooking off-grid. 10,000 suns can melt Bismuth (with a similar volumetric heat of fusion to water), at 271C. While that’s hot enough to use for cooking, I just can’t visualize how to store that safely, or what I would use as my heat exchange fluid, or how I would draw the heat out when I wanted to cook, or…

I’d love to build a system to store winter using ice as a phase change material. 17T stored in a straw bale vault replaces a refrigerator. 43T with a air-to-air heat pump provides all heating, cooling, refrigeration, and dehumidification (wanna keep you house at 14 C all summer?) for a well built house. The trick is to build a structure that is sufficiently flexible to avoid rupturing when the ice expands. I’ve got that…

I’d love to build a house in Ontario that doesn’t need a heating system. Build the walls and floors out of the soil you dig out of the basement, and have a thermal mass of hundreds of tonnes, and wrap in strawbale. It would be massive and passive (and I guess, glassive, since the south wall would be glazing). With the rest of those ideas, it would be entirely off grid, (except for cooking for now).

I’d love to use a DCFC to generate CHP using wood or farm waste as a feed stock. Hell, I’d love to be a vendor if such a product became available anytime soon. I heat with 6 Cord of wood per year, and spend about $2000/year on electricity. I’d love to burn 8 Cord of wood a year, and get all of my electricity for sweat alone.

 

My Sustainability design philosophy would be:

  • use what you get for free (to be frugal)
  • keep the energy in the form closest to the free source (to be efficient)
  • understand the shadow that your system casts on the ecosystem (to be moral)
  • resilience should not be abandoned for efficiency (to be adaptable)

Where can this go 3

I wonder if it is possible for communities to display signs of stress differently from individuals. Since ‘mob mentality’ is different from individual behaviours, especially in times of stress, it may be that groups will have behaviours that are distinctly unique from individuals. We may be able to monitor stress in individuals, and from that determine what their stressors are, and from that identify the actual obstructions that prevent their needs from being addressed – how do we do this in groups?

A sense of community is built by doing emotional work together as a group.  Since our culture tries to avoid emotional work in general, community is a fragile thing, but provides immense resilience.  Perhaps the lack of a sense of community can be used as an indicator of underlying community obstructions?

And would there be a parallel in families?  Is there a sense of family that can be disrupted when there are obstructions at a family scale?

 

Where this can go 2

Recently, I read about Chronic Stress, and the effects it has on human psychology and physiology.  CSHS says there is a simple recipe for stress (NUTS, being Novelty, Unexpected, Threat to Ego/Self, and loss of Sense of control), and the stress response is generally good.  It’s the long term exposure to stress that is the problem, because it changes you.  I wonder, and I’m investigating, if Chronic Stress is a good indicator that needs aren’t being met, and thus it should be possible to detect if people are stressed, and then identify what the stressors in the community are.  This is sounding suspiciously like Human Development (exploring the Capabilities, Freedoms, and choices of the population), but I am seeing this a little more truncated that that.  I’m trying to see what impact alternative designs will have on a community based on what is currently preventing their needs from being met.  No sense making time available if it will only be used to feed addictions (for example, like workaholism, or Starbucks, or promiscuity) that won’t ultimately raise the actualize quality of life within the community.

Perhaps there is a way to use stress as a means to identify the obstructions within a society that prevent needs from being met.  Perhaps it can be quantified by measuring the fraction of time that people use to meet each of their needs, and the time weighted fraction of needs that aren’t met.

For example, lets imagine…

  • PTSD obstructs around 10% of the population from being able to meet their needs effectively.
  • Imagine that these people are express the symptoms of ‘trouble sleeping’, ‘distant from people’, ‘unable to relax’, and ‘not feeling physically safe’, and this relates to the needs of ‘Rest’, ‘Child-care’, and ‘Security’.
  • Imagine that these activities would normally take 550 min/d/ca, while total needs take 880 min/d/ca. Imagine also that the symptoms are observed 25% of the time, and there are no other obstructions.
  • Thus, the Effectiveness would be [(880-550)*100% + 550 * (100%-25%)]/880 = 84%
  • Obstructed time use would be 880/0.84 = 1042 min/d/ca.
  • Across the population, this would be (880×90% + 1042*10%)=896 min/d/ca., or the equivalent of an additional 16 min/d/ca.
  • 16 min/d/ca is 1.1% of a day.
  • The slope of the time/resource curve at capacity is 9.5 min/d/ca/gHa.
  • To get the same improvement in the Actualized Quality of Life, the Community Managed Ecological Footprint would have to be increased from 7.6 gHa to (7.6+ 16/9.5=) 9.3 gHa, an increase of 22.5%.

In this example, activities affecting the Effectiveness of a community will have 20x the impact of activities affecting the resource availability of the community.

The US is vastly over capacity – I don’t have the numbers precisely, but they have a footprint that is about twice their biocapacity.  If we tried to address this through ‘efficiency’ alone, we’d have to increase the time it take people to meet their needs by roughly 80 minutes per day – that’s more than all the time spent in paid employment that meets needs in Canada, and that would be politically impossible to achieve (either wages would have to drop significantly, or age of retirement would have to rise significantly, or both).  By combining efficiency with effectiveness, though, a fraction of the time that isn’t being used effectively to meet needs (say 400+ minutes per day) could be reduced by that 80 minutes per day, and there would be no need to eliminate retirement, or accept 3rd world wages.  People would have fewer unmet needs, and the total wealth in the community would increase.

 

Where this can go 1

So, all pages here so far talk about the efficiency by which people use their time to meet their needs – either directly, or by converting resources into the means to meet needs. Nothing talks about effectiveness, and that’s where this all has to go.
The poorest people in Canada use around 900 minutes per day to meet their needs. The rest of their time is not spent meeting needs. I don’t believe that everyone in the poorest decile of household income have all of their needs met, so that means that even if they have 1/3 of their time available to meet needs, for some reason they can not use the time to meet needs. Something prevents them from doing so.
Perhaps it is an obstruction from inside their self, or their family, or their community, but there is some obstruction.  Perhaps it’s racism, or addiction, or domestic violence.  Perhaps it’s cultural baggage, or a lack of education.  But whatever it is, I think it makes people not completely effective at using their time to meet their needs.

I think:

  • People use their time to meet their wants and needs, or they use their time convert resources into the means to meet their wants and needs.
  • And at the same time, people act at all times (there will be some specific exceptions) to meet their perceived needs.

Which implies that the perception of needs for most people is part of the obstructions.  Perhaps the difference between ‘surviving’ and ‘thriving’ is knowing when your needs are met and thus when you can meet wants at your leisure?

This ‘effectiveness’ would provide a perpendicular dimension to the Time/Resource curve already discussed, and may look something like this:

Effectiveness

This curve would be generated by asking community members about their consumption habits, time use, and what symptoms they experience that predicts what obstructions they experience.  It would be a time-weighted average across each sub-set of the community, and all of the aggregated data is plotted together (average for the group, plus really should show distribution bars).

So, if a respondent demonstrates that 70% of their needs are met, the data would include which 70%, so there would be like Table B1 in my paper here – except that it would be the average values of how much of each need isn’t met within the community.   The community as a whole can then be checked to see how it would end up responding to any given alternative design, based on the obstructions that prevent the population from making full use of the development.

Single Value of Green

In all economic transactions, the value of a product or service is perceived by the vendor to be less than the selling price, while the value perceived by the buyer is greater than the selling price. Or rather than the price, the value of the money equal to the selling price, although that distinction is not truly relevant.

But then, it is asked, what is the value of ‘Green’? Or, what is the value of the ecological systems that surround us and provide us with ecological benefits?

As there is no vendor, there is no value to the vendor, and thus the selling price may be zero. In the concept of Environmental Economics, the ‘Government’, as the steward of The Commons, is able to set a price that reflects the price of those environmental benefits.  Of course, the concept also assumes the government is effectively omniscient, omnipotent, and wise, three conditions that are not supported by the evidence.

Likewise, there really isn’t a buyer. Why would you pay for air?  No one can stop air from reaching me for free.  But imagine if one could, then I would pay anything I owned to get my next-to-last gasp.

So, in the case of a commodity such as air, the value is less than the selling price, which is therefore nothing, and also greater than the purchase price, which could be anything. The concept of value must be uncoupled from price for at least some environmental features.

Perhaps value of the environmental feature can be estimated from a replacement cost. Thus, while I can’t estimate the value of sunlight, I can estimate the economic value of providing a similar quantity of heat and light.  But that only works when there is a technological replacement for that environmental feature.  So, while the case study of the New York City water supply would suggest that clean land will save about 0.5 cents/acre/ca., some environmental features cannot be replaced.

{New York Water supply case: The US EPA ordered the City of New York to upgrade its water treatment plant to the tune of an extra $8 B, plus $300M per year.  The City chose instead to institute $2 B of stewardship programs in the upstream watershed, and provided the same water quality benefit.  That worked out to an up-front savings of $50,000 per acre, divided through 10M people, or about 0.5 cents per person per acre, not considering the operational savings.}

This introduces a concept that usually would have no place in a discussion of economic value. There are environmental features that cannot be replaced by current technology, are not avoidable or controllable, and are therefore not buyable or sellable.  Thus, the only value they could have is measured by the cost of their absence.  So, what is Gravity worth?  If Gravity ceased to operate tomorrow, there would be no life on the planet by the end of the day.  So arguably, the value of Gravity is infinite.  Rather than that, I would introduce the concept of ‘Sacred’ – any feature that is not replaceable, not avoidable/controllable, and/or not sellable, is Sacred, and cannot have a value that can be measured in something as vulgar as money.

 

For example, sunlight, by that definition, is Sacred. Even if the fraction of the Sunlight that goes to photosynthesis is considered, it is effectively Sacred, as there is no way to replace it.  If this is pared down further to the sunlight that is used to produce food, the economic value is so large (eg, all economic activity on the planet has the same value as all food production on the planet, since we all work for food) that it is effectively Sacred, even if it doesn’t precisely meet the definition (replaceable, just not at that scale).

Weather is Sacred – it moves energy, air, and water around the globe, in a way that cannot be replaced, controlled, or sold. It may be that HAARP attempts to make weather mundane, but that is just conjecture.

Wilderness is Sacred, even if the term of Wilderness is somewhat ill defined and subjective.

This list is quite abbreviated, but it is clear that one could find many environmental features that meet the concept of Sacred. This illustrates that there is a need for the concept, and that there is a weakness in any financial argument, because many ‘things’ have some very high intrinsic values that cannot be reflected in financial terms.  Another unit of measure is required.

So, I will introduce another concept. Natural Services are processes that reduce the amount of time required for communities to meet their needs, without an investment of time and/or resources on the part of the community. Thus a volcano adding ash to soils, and thus increasing crop productivity, is a natural service.  Weather, sunlight, tides, etc all are natural services.  Natural services renew renewable resources, assimilate wastes, and in many other ways allow people to live on the world in relative comfort, because we gain disproportionately to the effort required to utilize these services.

The value of the natural service is, at an absolute minimum, the replacement time cost for the community to either do without the natural service, or to substitute the natural service with an alternative. In many cases, the natural service will not be replaceable or avoidable and is therefore Sacred.  This does not invalidate this argument, rather it demonstrates that some things are not and should not be for sale.

Thus, the value of ‘Green’ is, at a minimum, the aggregate time cost of the incremental absence of the natural services associated with ‘Green’. Due to synergistic effects, this apparent value must be conservative, and possibly very much so.

To compare to monetary values, one would have to add the life-cycle time benefit of the ‘Green’, and produce the financial cost to purchase this much time in the community. So, if a particular ‘Green’ feature saved the community 20 minutes per day per person, the economic value of the feature is 20 minutes of labour per day per person, multiplied by the value of each minute of that labour and the population affected.  And this would be making the assumption that we understand the ecology sufficiently and the functioning of the community sufficiently to include all time costs accurately.

Understanding the value of ‘Green‘ is the first step in exploring Sustainable Technological Development.